In any given season, there are generally just a few contenders in each conference in a tier by themselves with everyone else left chasing a rainbow. The Western conference fits that pattern. The East does not. The top 8 seeds are separated by just 7 games in the Eastern conference. The top 8 seeds in the west are separated by 19 games. So how do we sort through the playoff teams to find the ones with the potential to make serious noise? We dive into the numbers and the film. Every one of the top 8 seeds has shown some potential to make noise in the playoffs, and I will be examining each and every one of them.
Miami Heat
The Miami Heat will not go down. They have not missed the playoffs two seasons in a row since 2003. In 2020, they went on a surprising run to the finals, where they lost to the Lakers despite an amazing series by Jimmy Butler. With the addition of Kyle Lowry and the growth of Tyler Herro, the Heat improved on an already great roster and currently find themselves 1st in the conference despite constant injuries. The story of the Heat begins and ends with Jimmy Butler. The All-Star forward is averaging 21.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 6.0 assists with 1.8 steals on 53% eFG. In the past, advanced stats have shown that when Butler was off the court, the Heat fell apart. In 2020-2021. When Butler played, the Heat had a record of 33-19. When he sat, they had a record of 7-13. This season, they have flipped that on its head. Without Butler, they have a record of 12-7. Had they maintained the record from last year, they would be in 7th place in the East. Instead, they are in 1st. In games with Butler injured, Lowry is averaging 15.5 points and 8.9 assists, and has fulfilled his role as the primary playmaker. The scoring explosion of 6th man Tyler Herro has been key to Miami’s rise from the 18th best offense all the way to 7th. Of course, you also have Bam Adebayo. The star big man anchors the defense, creates for his teammates at a high level, and scores efficiently. His playmaking numbers have taken a small dip this season, but he is still one of the best passing big men around. They tend to play a slow paced style focused more on half court offense then transition. Their flock of shooters and pair of stars give them an explosive offense, and their group of lockdown defenders can shut down almost any scorer they may face. All that being said, they have a few weaknesses for teams with the personnel to exploit them. Duncan Robinson is in just the 8th percentile as an isolation defender and we could see teams seek him out on switches and attack him. They also are a little weak in terms of perimeter shot creation and in recent seasons that has proved to be crucial to playoff success. Tyler Herro can fit that role when hot, but he is yet another negative defender. Jimmy Butler is a great slasher as well but he generally is better at scoring within the offense then in isolation situations. The Heat will never beat themselves. They will also never crush an opponent under the weight of their pure talent. The Heat are not the flashiest team in the East. They might be the best.
Chicago Bulls
Before the season, the narrative was that the Bulls had overpaid for DeMar DeRozen. At this point, it is exceedingly clear that they got him at a major discount. DeRozen leads the NBA in total points and only trails Embiid and Giannis in points per game. In an injury-filled season for the Bulls (you may be beginning to notice a pattern), DeRozen has been the only constant. He has played 53 of 57 total games and is averaging almost 36 minutes a game. He has kept the Bulls afloat despite injuries to Lonzo Ball, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, and multiple other rotation players. Pairing him with Nikola Vucivic and Zach Lavine, the Bulls have a trio of elite scorers with solid efficiency. Zach Lavine has constantly been evolving over his NBA career. When he started his career on the Timberwolves, he was an inefficient slasher known only for explosive dunks. Since then, he has improved almost every area of his game to the point where the old player is barely recognizable. His biggest strides have come in his shooting, but his playmaking and defensive improvements may be just as impactful. This season he made his second straight all-star team and will look to win his first ever playoff series in the spring. The modern NBA is all about great offenses built on elite scorers, and the Bulls are that to a T. They have the 4th best offensive rating across the league and the 2nd best in the Eastern Conference. Having an offense with multiple high level scorers and multiple ways to score is always a recipe for success. That being said, offense is only half the game. The Bulls have had questions about their defense since before the season began, and the questions remain. With Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball healthy the Bulls defense seemed solid enough, but with them both out for long periods of time, there are no guarantees about how the defense performs when they return. For the season they are 19th defensively, and it is very likely that the elite offensive teams could expose them defensively. The Bulls should be able to get into a shootout if they have to, but it would force them to rely more and more on DeRozan. Right now that might sound great, but DeMar has a history of not performing when it matters most. These playoffs will either cement that reputation or purge it. Time will tell.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers were expected to be terrible. Their over-under before the season started was 26.5, the 4th worst in the entire NBA. Two-thirds of the way through the season, they have 35 wins. The Eighth youngest team in the league, Cleveland has a strong core built around a pair of all-stars and a Rookie of the Year favorite. First time all-star Darius Garland has had a great season, averaging 20 points and 8 assists while leading the Cavaliers to the 19th best offense in the league despite a lack of shooters or shot creators around him. Garland has been incredible, but he’s not the main story here. That would be the big men. Evan Mobley is a rookie averaging 14.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists to go with 0.8 steals and 1.7 blocks per game. He is also contesting the third most shots in the entire league. He is not only having the best season among rookies, he is having one of the best defensive seasons across the NBA. And if you can manage to get past him, you will be met at the rim by another dominant big man, Jarrett Allen. These two anchor the NBA’s 3rd best defense and make up for the team’s small backcourt. Meanwhile, Kevin Love has had a real resurgence this season as a 6th man. His shooting ability and experience are crucial to a team that lacks both. Isaac Okoro and Cedi Osman are solid perimeter defenders in the rotation. Heading into the new year, that was everyone. A solid rotation, but one lacking in a few key areas. Between then and the trade deadline, the Cavs added two key pieces. The first was Rajon Rondo. After big injuries to Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio, the Cavaliers lacked playmaking, and Rondo provides that. Cleveland also acquired Caras Levert from the Pacers. His perimeter shot creation and isolation scoring could prove to be massively important, especially against stout defenses. This team is well built and set up to have success for years to come. Cleveland looks outmatched by the star power surrounding them in the standings, but they have been outperforming expectations since the season began. Who’s to say they won’t continue.
Philadelphia 76ers
The goal of basketball is getting the ball in the basket. Joel Embiid is currently the best person in the world at doing just that. Joel Embiid plays for the 76ers. That alone gives them a chance against anybody. They also traded for James Harden, one of the best scorers and playmakers of all time. Tobias Harris, Matisse Thybulle, and Tyreese Maxey round out a very talented first unit. The talent is there. There is no question about that. The questions are about the fit and about the chemistry. James Harden has a tendency to stand around when he doesn't have the ball in his hands, and that could be seriously detrimental to Embiid’s space around the basket. That is especially concerning when you remember that the team's best shooter has just been traded to a division rival. On the other hand, Harden has traditionally played ebay with rim-running centers like Clint Capela. Traditionally Embiid has popped instead. There is nothing to suggest Embiid is unable to adjust his playstyle, but his willingness to do so is a different question. We also need to get into depth. The 76ers have a serious lack of shot creators coming off the bench, and that is especially concerning when James Harden and Joel Embiid have struggled with injuries over the past couple of seasons. If either goes down before the playoffs, we could see this expensive bargain fail to pay off for the 76ers. Harden is a free agent this offseason, and there are no promises that he re-signs. Playoff success this season is a necessity. Expectations are high, but that is for good reason. This team has the most talented duo in the league, and if they can reach their full potential together nobody can stand in their way.
Milwaukee Bucks
You should never count out the defending champs, especially when the defending champs have Giannis Antekoumpo. The Greek Freak is averaging 29 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists. He is completely and totally unstoppable when he is rolling. Last season, the Bucks seemed to prioritize rest and injury recovery over winning in the regular season and trusted themselves to be able to flip a switch once the playoffs arrived. Some teams attempt that and get into an unbreakable habit of playing without intensity. The Bucks are not one of those teams. All that being said, that makes it hard to evaluate their regular season without knowing what will and won't continue into the postseason. They have a versatile roster built around three elite stars on both ends of the court. Khris Middleton has seen a slight dip in production but e is still an elite #2 option and a great fit with Giannis. Jrue Holiday has missed some time with injury, but when he has been on the court he has been excellent. At the moment, the team has been solid but not outstanding in most statistical areas, with their biggest weakness being a lack of depth in certain areas. Any injury to a rotation player could have big repercussions. If they can avoid that, they are probably the most well rounded team in the conference. Giannis might not win his third MVP this season, but don't get it twisted, he is the best player in the world right now and if you want to make it out of the east you better be prepared to take him down. Easier said than done.
Boston Celtics
The old cliche goes “Defense wins championships.” If that holds true this season, the Boston Celtics may very well be holding the Larry O’ Brian trophy in a few months. Since December 31st, the Celtics lead the league in both defensive rating and net rating by a large margin. Over that stretch, the Celtics are 17-6. The offense is also improving, although lackluster shooting and spotty ball movement keep it from being anything resembling elite. The acquisition of Derrick White has helped on that front, but he's yet another mediocre shooter on a team full of them. Jayson Tatum has recovered from his early season slump and is playing far better, but his percentage from three is nowhere close to seasons past. The emergence of Robert Williams has taken the team to a different level on both ends of the court, and Grant Williams has sneakily become one of the most versatile 3 and D guys in the league. The Celtics have been on an eight game winning streak, and it has come since rookie coach Ime Udoka shortened the rotation to only 7 or 8 players most nights. The team is young and has had a recent streak of health, but when you are running a playoff rotation in the regular season you run the risk of fatigue and injury. Early in the season, the Celtics were constantly blowing big leads late in the game but that habit seems to be disappearing. Part of the struggle was Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown isolating and taking inefficient shots instead of attacking the rim. Recently, the ball is moving, shots are falling, and the Celtics are getting to the rim. Jayson and Jaylen’s offensive performance will determine how far this team goes in the playoffs, but if this defensive stretch keeps up, the sky's the limit.
Toronto Raptors
There is no team like the Toronto Raptors. On most nights their rotation contains approximately eight players. Seven are between the heights of 6’5 and 6’9. They are a constantly shifting unit that excels with speed, athleticism, and team defense. The team is led by Pascal Siakam and Freddie Vanfleet, a pair of stars who combine for 44 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists per game. Gary Trent Jr. has taken a real step up and his 1.9 steals per game ranks 2nd in the league. It is also impossible to talk about the raptors without mentioning Scottie Barnes. The rookie started hot and has since cooled off, but his all-around play has been a huge part of the Raptors success. The Raptors sit in an odd spot between rebuilding and contending, and it seems they have decided to try and do both. Their unique team construction is a major risk, because if they happen to match up against a dominant center they may not have an answer. They also are not well prepared to get into a pure shootout, and there are some teams who will do their best to get into one. All that being said, nobody has more versatile defenders than Toronto, and nobody has a more creative coach.
Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets are the biggest wild card of the Eastern Conference. Ben Simmons has not played basketball in almost a year. Kevin Durant was an MVP candidate but he's also spent a lot of time on the sidelines due to injury. Kyrie Irving is only available for away games. If they are healthy and playing together well they will be essentially unstoppable. If they can’t resolve their respective issues they will continue to lose and drop in the standings. It's hard to even begin to analyze this team statistically without any sort of sample size for the combination of players they plan on putting on the court. But if the way Kevin Durant played before his injury is any indication of how the Nets will perform at full health, they are in good hands. If their recent stretch of losses is any indication? They are a doomed experiment. Most likely they will fall somewhere in the middle, and somewhere in the middle will still be a very dangerous team.
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