When the Sacramento Kings traded Tyrese Haliburton to the Indiana Pacers, the NBA community let out a collective gasp. But there is a silver lining. It opened up opportunities for the two other young point guards on the Kings, Davion Mitchell and De’Aaron Fox. Davion Mitchell has had a promising rookie season, but Fox is the true star. Last season, Fox averaged 25.2 points, 7.5 assists, and 1.5 steals. He is having a down season this year, but many people blame a crowded backfield with more point guards than the team knows how to deal with. They thought that by clearing up their logjam at point guard, Fox would find his role once again and flourish. Early returns look very promising. De’Aaron is averaging 28 points per game since Haliburton was traded, up significantly from 21.8 on the season. But as with any trade, the players who left the Kings were only half the story.
Domantas Sabonis is 25 years old. He is already a two-time all-star, a high level scorer and passer, and one of the very best screeners in the world. If you want a big man to build your offense around, he is very close to the prototype. There are just two problems. He can’t shoot and he can’t play defense. Turns out those are pretty tough problems to overcome in the modern NBA. So despite all the individual success in Sabonis young career, an important question has followed him around. Can he lead a championship level team despite his flaws? The Kings are putting serious money on a bet that he can. The Lithuanian big man has floated around 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists over his last few seasons but that statistical success has not led to anything once the playoffs roll around. Supporters of his would say that is more to do with his previous organization’s unwillingness to commit to building around him and his skill set. Detractors will say that he is simply not good enough. The Kings are far from a franchise known for their ability to build a winning team, but they are clearly willing to build around Sabonis, and that is more than you can say for any of his previous teams. So the question arises. How far can Domantas and De’Aaron go?
In their final game before the All-Star break, the Kings faced off against the Bulls and DeMar DeRozan. They lost by seven but kept it competitive against a good team for a full 48 minutes. And over those 48 minutes, we got the full Fox and Ox experience. The duo of stars had their flaws on full display, but they also had moments of subtle (and not so subtle) brilliance. On this play, Fox weaves side to side, forcing his defender to dodge Sabonis again and again until he finally ends up caught out of position and Fox takes advantage.
On this possession, Sabonis’s screen sets Ayo Dosunmu behind the play and after a great fox pass and a tough Sabonis catch, Sabonis has an open layup and two points.
Here, Dosunmu is so worried about staying ahead of the play despite the Sabonis screen that he jumps the gun and leaves Fox wide open from three point range.
It happens again on this play, where the threat of a screen forces the defender to be aggressive and move out of position, allowing Fox to blow by him and get the layup.
Even the idea of a Sabonis screen gives openings for Fox and the rest of the Kings. Sabonis is also often used as a screener off ball to open up players for catch and shoot opportunities off of Fox’s passes. It's a subtle skill you won't notice in the flow of a game, but when you look closely, Sabonis is always in the exact right place to give the shooter the maximum amount of space to get off their shot. These three plays show that ability off to a T.
The Kings now also have multiple players who can each be the center of the offense, meaning that if one needs to take a rest the other can take over for a few minutes without a major drop off in the quality of the offense. Not only that, but the stylistic dichotomy of the two players allows the team to dramatically change the team's style with one substitution. Even when they share the court, some possessions feel like 'Ox' possessions. Some of that is unfamiliarity. The two have not played together for long, it would be unreasonable of Sabonis to have completely integrated into the offensive style of the Kings. But even as the star builds chemistry with the team, there is something to be said for having the occasional possession completely built on the skill set of Sabonis. Every team has a plan for dealing with the pick and roll, and the good teams execute it well. But not all teams are prepared to deal with an elite post playmaker and scorer in the modern NBA. Say what you want about Sabonis, it's hard to argue his skill set isn't unique these days. Especially when the playoffs come around and you are game-planning for one opponent, offensive flexibility is massively important. The Kings have it in spades with Sabonis.
During these 'Ox' possessions, we see a variety of shooters and perimeter playmakers circling the three-point line while Sabonis goes to work with post moves and handoffs. It's a simple offense in theory but one that only works with an elite playmaker to put in the middle. Sabonis is that elite playmaker. He always makes the right read, and he is a master of manipulating the defense from the post. He fakes the shot to open up the pass, he fakes the pass to open up the shot, and he does everything in between. In these three possessions he picks apart the defense from the post in three different ways. First, he draws multiple help defenders and quickly fires a pass over to Harrison Barnes, who knocks down the wide open shot. Later, Sabonis grabs the offensive rebound and finds an open cutter for the dunk while doubled in the post. And finally, in his pièce de résistance, Sabonis outmaneuvers three defenders swarming him in the post with constant movement, an incredible pass fake and finally, a tough finish through contact. Doesn't get much better than that.
De'Aaron Fox has never been the type of player to take control of halfcourt offense in the same way Sabonis does, but he doesn't have to be one. Instead, Fox shines most as a player in transition, where he can use his speed, shiftiness, and split second decision making to pick apart vulnerable teams trying to rush back and set up their defense. On these plays, Fox quickly analyzes the defense and makes the right read to get good opportunities at the rim.
For all of those reasons and more, this young duo has a lot of potential, especially on the offensive end. But as is always the case with unrealized potential, they have a lot of issues to deal with before they are anything resembling a duo good enough to power a contending team. Unfortunately for the Kings, basketball is only 50% offense. Despite Fox's nickname "Swipa'' being a joke about his ability to steal the ball, he lacks effort on defense, often finds himself out of position, gets beaten off the dribble regularly, and is just generally bad. Some of those problems can be fixed quickly. If he stayed engaged and focused on defense, he would undoubtedly be a better defender off-ball. As an on-ball defender, Fox is a high risk high reward type of player. Sometimes he will get killed by a skilled opponent, sometimes he will poke the ball away for free possession. That's not always great, but it's also not inherently a problem. The issue arises when the reward comes less and less often. Fox is averaging less steals than he has since his rookie season, when he was averaging almost 8 minutes less per game. Fox has taken a step back in that aspect of his game, and he hasn't made up for it in other areas on defense. He needs to return to the 'Swipa' we all know and love, and he has to do it while improving his effort, focus, and awareness. Once he does that, this team will look completely different on that end of the court. An elite defensive point guard who can pressure ball handlers everywhere across the court is extremely valuable, and along with Davion Mitchell, the Kings could have two.
Sabonis's defensive issues are even more concerning. Fox's are bad, but they are also fixable. Sabonis needs to improve his habits on defense, he often makes unforced errors that put him out of position. Those can be remedied. He is also slow, unathletic, and generally lacking in all of the attributes we attach to being an elite defensive big man. That cannot be fixed, and because of that, he will never be a great defender. The question is whether or not he can even be average. The issue isn't just that Sabonis isn't the athlete players like Robert Williams or Bam Adebayo are, almost nobody is. That in itself is fine. But Sabonis plays like he thinks he are as athletic as them. Williams and Adebayo often purposely put themselves between two threats, knowing their instincts and athleticism can close the distance and stop either. Sabonis tries the same thing but stops neither. This play is a perfect example. Sabonis can't decide whether or not to commit to a driving Dosunmu so instead he stands paralyzed under the rim as the rookie easily converts the layup.
He also has a habit of losing his man open for no apparent reason like he does on this play, in which he gifts Nikola Vucevic a wide open three pointer:
His last major issue defensively is over-helping. He tends to aggressively help on ball-handlers when it is counterproductive, and it often leads to the rest of the defense breaking down in order to make up for him. On this play, Sabonis foolishly leaves his man, leading to him being beaten off the dribble and giving up a dunk.
In many ways, Fox and Sabonis are two sides of the same coin. Both are promising offensive talents who provide serious value through scoring and playmaking despite some flaws. Both have flawed defensive habits that need breaking. Both make foolish mistakes despite clearly knowing the game inside and out. The Kings made a gamble. Tyrese Haliburton is about as much of a sure thing as any young player in the league. Based on what he's shown off thus far, he will at worst be a high level starter in the league over his Pacers career. With Sabonis or Fox there is no such promise. Either could fail to fix their bad habits, develop a few more, and before you know it both will be cautionary tales for talented young players with defensive issues. But if things end up flipping the other way and the pair can resolve their issues while adding to their lists of strengths, this team could make some noise over the next few years. In this league the hardest thing to find are offensive engines, players who can get open shots for himself and the people around him. The Kings have two of them. This trade has largely been viewed as a disaster for the Kings, and if this duo doesn't pan out we could look back at it that way. But if Fox and Sabonis can reach their potential as a duo on both ends of the court, the league better watch out.
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